To understand what to expect during the winter of 2025-2026, it is essential to first consider the situation in the tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly the La Niña phenomenon. According to the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Climate Prediction Center, a weak La Niña is expected to persist through the winter months (December 2025 – February 2026), potentially shifting to an ENSO-neutral state by early spring.
In its report, the center states that the Niño-3.4 index is expected to remain between -0.5°C and -0.9°C, indicating a moderate to weak La Niña.
Multiple models from the North American Multi-Model Complex are consistent with this scenario.
This climatic situation has significant implications for temperatures and precipitation patterns across the United States, and will also affect the likelihood of cold or wet conditions in various locations.
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What are the forecasts for temperatures and precipitation
Based on analysis from the Climate Prediction Center, some notable patterns emerge:
Temperatures
Above-average temperatures are expected across much of the southern United States, including California, Texas, the southern coasts, and the East Coast toward Florida and beyond.
In contrast, some areas in the North (the Northwest, the Rocky Mountains, the Northern Plains, and parts of the Upper Great Lakes) are expected to experience cooler than average temperatures.
In Alaska, some areas, such as the Panhandle, may experience cooler temperatures, while others may be warmer than the seasonal average.
Precipitation (Rain/Snow)
Above-average rainfall or precipitation is likely in the Pacific Northwest, the western Great Lakes region, and parts of the Northern Plains.
Meanwhile, southern regions, such as the Southwest (California and South Texas) and the Southeast, may experience drier than average rainfall.
This distribution largely reflects the influence of a moderate La Niña: the weather system tends to shift storm tracks northward, with decreasing humidity to the south.
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Potential winter risks based on the scenario
From the above forecasts, we can deduce some of the risks that certain regions may face during the winter of 2025-2026, as well as the opportunities and challenges:
Arctic Outbreaks
Some forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of polar vortex intrusions, or weather patterns that allow polar air to move into the central or eastern United States
Such intrusions could lead to sudden drops in temperature, freezing temperatures, and possibly snowfall in unexpected areas.
Significant Temperature Variability
In some southern regions, the winter may be warmer than usual, but this doesn’t necessarily mean complete comfort: While warmer temperatures may reduce the need for heating, it doesn’t eliminate the need to prepare for cold spells at certain times, especially at night or during periods of extreme weather.
In the north, the cold may be more pronounced, especially if accompanied by precipitation, increasing risks to infrastructure (water pipes, heating systems) and health (cold exposure, frostbite).
Additional Precipitation in Some Areas
Northern regions expected to experience high humidity may see increased rainfall or snowfall. This could raise the risk of flooding or snow accumulation in some mountainous or lowland areas.
For cities, precipitation may cause transportation difficulties, especially if it coincides with a drop in temperature leading to frost or snow accumulation.
Drought in the South
Southern regions, which may be drier, could experience a “dry” winter in terms of precipitation. This could affect local water reserves (dams, rivers) if the drought persists.
A lack of rainfall in winter may reduce water replenishment, potentially impacting agriculture and future water demand.
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Potential impacts on daily life
How might this winter affect people in different states? Let’s look at some scenarios:
Northern/Central Cities
Families may need to prepare for severe cold snaps: increase heating use, check home insulation, and secure pipes to prevent freezing.
Infrastructure such as roads may be affected by snow or ice, requiring snow removal services and addressing traffic hazards.
The potential for snowfall could impact traffic, schools, and possibly require additional local budgets for emergency services.
Southern States
A warmer winter may mean less heating use, but it doesn’t mean no cold at all, especially at night.
Drought may be a greater concern than the cold: it may require better water management and local planning to address rainfall shortages.
There may be short periods of extreme cold if polar vortexes occur, so infrastructure (such as heating systems) should be prepared for these periods.
Mountainous and Rural Areas
In mountain ranges such as the Rocky Mountains or the northern highlands, heavy snowfall is likely, which may impact winter tourism (skiing) but could also pose challenges for residents of smaller areas (transportation, heating).
It is important for rural communities to ensure that roads are cleared of snow and that households have a supply of fuel or alternative heating methods.
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How to prevent a cold in the winter of 2025-2026
With these forecasts in mind, it’s important to think ahead about how to protect yourself, your family, and your property from the effects of the cold. Here are some practical tips for prevention:
1. Insulate your home
Improve insulation: Make sure windows and doors are well-insulated—insulating strips can be installed, or double glazing can be used if available.
Insulate your roof and walls: Good insulation in walls and roofs greatly helps retain heat in your home and reduces heating costs.
Seal gaps: Check for cracks or gaps in the exterior of your home (such as around vents, under doors, and around pipes) and seal them to prevent cold air from entering.
2. Heat smartly
Use a smart thermostat: This helps adjust the temperature automatically based on the time of day or your needs, reducing wasted energy.
Perform regular maintenance: Before winter begins, ensure your heating system (boiler, stove, heat pump) is working efficiently. Clean filters and have it professionally inspected if necessary.
Backup Fuel: In areas prone to severe cold snaps, it may be helpful to have an alternative heating source (such as a wood-burning stove, portable irons, or emergency heaters) on hand in case of a power outage.
3. Emergency Preparation
Power Emergency: Prepare an emergency kit that includes extra blankets, warm clothing, canned food, water, and light sources (such as flashlights) in case of a power outage during a severe cold snap.
Water Pipes: To prevent pipes from freezing, insulate them. Leave a small amount of water running (outside a window or tap) on very cold nights to relieve pressure, and open water tanks if necessary.
Weather Monitoring: Stay informed about weather forecasts and warnings (local weather websites and weather apps), as sudden cold snaps require quick preparation.
4. Personal and Health Care
Clothing: Wear layers of clothing (an inner layer close to the skin, an insulating layer, and a windproof/damp-proof outer layer).
Maintaining Safe Heating: If you use a fireplace or wood stove, ensure good ventilation to prevent carbon monoxide buildup, and use a carbon monoxide detector in your home.
Indoor Activity: Try to stay active indoors. Do simple exercises to generate body heat, and drink warm, non-alcoholic beverages to avoid dehydration and chills.
5. Safe Travel
Preparing for Snow and Ice: If you live in an area prone to snow or ice, keep a bag of sand or salt in your car and drive carefully.
Travel Plan: Plan trips in cold weather. Check the weather forecast before heading out and try to avoid traveling during peak storms.
6. Water Management
Responsible Water Consumption: During the winter, if rainfall is low in your area, it may be necessary to reduce water consumption to avoid running out.
Water Replenishment: If you live in a mountainous area or rely on local water sources (such as rivers or melted snow), plan to use resources wisely and conserve water.
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Alternative scenarios: What if expectations change
It is important to keep in mind that long-range climate forecasts (such as winter forecasts) are not 100% accurate, and there is always a possibility that things will turn out differently:
1. A shift to an earlier or later neutral state
Although La Niña is expected to persist, some models indicate a possible shift toward an ENSO-neutral state in late winter or early spring.
If this occurs, the expected precipitation and temperature patterns may change, with La Niña’s impact on the coldest temperatures being reduced.
There may be a more balanced distribution of precipitation, which could help southern regions that might experience drought, but it does not guarantee significant snowfall in the north.
2. A stronger or more persistent La Niña
While the current forecast indicates a weak La Niña, in some months or according to some models, it may signal a deeper or longer-lasting La Niña.
In the event of a stronger La Niña, the north may become colder, and there may be more frequent and intense cold spells.
Northern precipitation may be heavier than expected, increasing the risk of snow and flooding in some areas and posing challenges to transportation and infrastructure.
3. The Impact of Other Climate Cycles
La Niña isn’t the only factor controlling winter weather: other elements, such as the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), can influence wind patterns, currents, and periods of cold or warm weather. These factors can produce surprises that don’t perfectly reflect seasonal forecasts.